Indiana Primary

Maybe Obama will do better than my prediction? From pollster.com, the last 6 polls are, through yesterday:
That's
Polling organization, dates, sample size and LV=likely voters, Clinton%, Obama% and the undecided%.

InsiderAdvantage	5/4/08	502 LV	48	44	8
Zogby	5/3-4/08	636 LV	42	44	8
Suffolk	5/3-4/08	600 LV	49	43	6
PPP (D)	5/3-4/08	851 LV	51	46	3
ARG	5/2-4/08	600 LV	53	45	2
SurveyUSA	5/2-4/08	675 LV	54	42	1

The average of these gives a 5.5% difference, with 4.7% undecided. Allocating those as if they will split like everyone else gives 5.8%. If they all go for Clinton, then we get to a 10% difference.

One of several interesting things about this is that while the standard deviation of the Obama percentages is 1.4, the standard deviation of the Clinton percentages is 4.3. The standard deviation of the undecided percentages is 3.1. Basically, all those undecideds go over to Clinton or not, depending on specific details of the question phrasing, and how the organization balances their sample to the statewide demographics.

I'll drop my prediction from Clinton by 14% in the previous post to Clinton by 10%. Same standard deviation as before, 4%.