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Monday, May 5, 2008

The Day Before the Polls Close: Indiana and North Carolina

Zogby has run a poll that says that Obama is ahead in Indiana. No other polling organization sees that however, so I'm inclined to disbelieve it. Further, polling is hinting that late deciders are going for Clinton, which I find believable. When you're not sure, the devil you know is the one you tend to go with. Clinton has been around for a long time, Obama is the fresh face on the block.

I'm guessing double digit win in Indiana for Clinton, maybe 14 points.

North Carolina is a tougher call. A virtual tie wouldn't surprise me. I'll bet on Obama by 3 percent.

Errors: If I'm wrong in Indiana, give it a standard deviation of prediction of 4 on the prediction. If I'm wrong in North Carolina, also a standard deviation of prediction of 4.

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